Listen in as our analysts discuss an array of topics that may be affecting your institution, including recent market movements and industry-wide commentary. These briefings can serve as educational tools for both boards and management.
Watch the Latest Briefing
February 12, 2019 —This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the performance of the Community Bank
Benchmark group for the 4Q 2018. Overall, the benchmark’s return on average assets declined by 8 bps. This
decline was primarily due to the increase in noninterest expense. Increases in the level of noninterest expense
to average asset ratio often occur in the 4Q due to year-end bonuses and other year-end expenses. Net interest
margin increased by 1 bp over the past quarter as the yield on earning assets expanded at a slightly faster
pace than the cost of funds. Generally, 2018 was a strong year for community banks.
January 22, 2019 —This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the December 2018 ISM Index which pointed to continued growth but at a slower pace.
Both the Manufacturing and the Non-Manufacturing indices declined but remain above 50. Additionally, Jamie reviews the movements in the PPI and CPI which
both pint to a pull off in inflation compared to mid-2018 levels. These trends are consistent with the trend in the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation
expectations. The pull off in inflation expectations is one component behind the reduction in the 10-year Treasury yields. Lastly, Jamie reviews the
GDPNow which estimates the 4Q GDP growth at 2.8% as of January 16th. However, no additional updates have been provided due to the lack of data availability
as a result of the government shutdown.
January 8, 2019 —This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the December 2018 Employment Report along with the U.S. Treasury Curve and the Fed Funds Probability chart.
Overall, December was a strong month producing 312,000 jobs with a good degree of diversity in the types of jobs created. Furthermore, the report showed that the average hourly
earnings saw a 3.15% increase over the past year. This marks the third consecutive month with a year over year increase greater than 3%. Lastly, Jamie covers the movements in the
10-year UST and the implied probabilities of the Fed Funds rate throughout 2019.
December 18, 2018 —This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the CPI index which continues
to show moderated inflation numbers, especially when compared to pre-2008 figures. Retail sales
continued to be strong in November, with a year over year change of 4.2% and a month over month
change that came in above expectations. Jamie also reviewed the movement in the 10-year UST yield
over the past year, which hit a high of 3.24% in November. However, Jamie anticipates that the
10-year UST will be volatile over the next year, but will continue to come back to a trading range
of 2.85-3%. As for the Fund Funds rate, it is expected that the Fed will increases rates on the 19th.
However, the market is suggesting that the likelihood of a rate hike in 2019 is less than 40%.
December 04, 2018 —This week Jamie Sumner, chief analyst, reviews the slight changes in the second estimate of the 3Q GDP
along with the advance inventories number of October, which point to a continuous replenishment of inventories. Furthermore, Jamie
reviews the October construction spending report which showed a slight pull off. Lastly, Jamie discusses the treasury curve.